Glimpsing Western Australia’s future climate

According to the National Agriculture & Climate Change Action Plan, put out by Department of Agriculture Fisheries & Forestry, Bureau of Meteorology and Meat & Livestock Australia, we are probably going to experience severe climate change during the rest of this century. Some of the predictions from the report are -

Overall Trends Temperature projections for Western Australia indicate continued warming over the coming decades. Climate models consistently predict a reduction in winter and spring rainfall for south-west Western Australia. Rainfall projections indicate a drying trend for the whole state, apart from the Kimberley region. The combination of projected warming and rainfall decline has serious implications for streamflow in Western Australia. Potential threats from climate change exist for Western Australian agriculture. Farmers need to prepare for unavoidable climate change, as well as help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Changes in mean rainfall By 2030, annual rainfall across most of Western Australia is projected to decrease by 2–per cent relative to the climate around 1990 (Figure 1). By 2070 a decrease of 5–10 per cent is most likely under a low greenhouse gas emissionscenario, or a 10–20 per cent decrease under a high-emission scenario.

Winter and spring rainfall is likely to decrease, whereas changes in summer and autumn rainfall are less certain. A range of independent climate models consistently predict reduced rainfall for south-west Western Australia. When a range of models predict the same result for a given region, it increases confidence in the prediction. We expect natural climate drivers to strongly influence rainfall variability for many decades to come, counteracting and adding to the projected human-induced changes.

Changes in mean temperature -  We are more confident in the projections of mean temperature than those of rainfall. By 2030, annual average temperatures over Western Australia are projected to increase by up to 1°C in southern and coastal parts of the state, and up to 1.5°C inland (Figure 2). By 2070 this increase is around 1.5–2.5°C under a low-emission scenario, or around 3–4°C under a high-emission scenario. Less warming is expected in coastal and southern regions. Projected warming during summer is similar to the annual increase, but slightly greater during spring and slightly less during autumn and winter. Read Full report

Posted by: Andrew
Company: Noble & Associates
Phone: 61894007400
Posted On: 1/1/0001
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Categories: Climate Change
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